A Brexit Blockage

Author:
Ally Winning, European Editor, PSD

Date
05/07/2019

 PDF

Writing a column like this, where there is no set template and you are more free to speculate or theorise, can be a lot of fun. There is a danger though, and that is that any carefully crafted musings can be severely outdated before the print even dries. This month I thought I’d write more about Brexit, since that is all anyone in this country (UK) seems to be talking about these days. When I travel around Europe, I’m also often faced with questions on the current state of affairs, so I thought I’d take some time to expand on the situation here at the moment.

Brexit has proven a complex problem with no real solution that won’t lead to an immense upheaval in the UK’s political structure. Unlike normal political issues, Brexit hasn’t fallen neatly between party lines. Both the Conservative and Labour parties have significant numbers of supporters on both sides of the divide. This has completely paralysed parliament, with several factions vying against each other for superiority within each party. These splits have been worsened by the fact that there is no clear majority for any party in the House of Commons, and currently the Conservatives are only running the country as a minority government with the help of Northern Ireland’s DUP party. Party discipline has broken down almost completely in the two main parties, with MPs voting how they choose. But, even with that freedom, most MPs are voting to block any other choice but their own, rather than compromising, leading to a complete stalemate and a lot of animosity.

At the moment it looks like the most likely outcome will come from negotiations between the ruling Conservatives and the Labour opposition. Frustrated at her own party’s blocking of the deal she negotiated with the EU, UK PM Theresa May has begun talks with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn to try tailor her deal to try get a majority in the House. However, Corbyn is likely to insist that any deal will have to be put back to voters in a confirmatory vote. A second vote will be hugely unpopular with the Conservatives and could lead to an outright split in the party. Since May and Corbyn started talking, the Conservatives have dropped like a stone in the polls. Labour is hardly in a better state, with some MPs in leave voting constituencies angry at what could be seen as going against the public and the result of the referendum. Polling on Brexit has shown a small change in favour of remaining, but not enough to be confident that cancelling wouldn’t cause a massive wave of public disorder. Each side of the debate seems as entrenched as the MPs, with no signs of any movement. Meanwhile businesses are frantic and trade bodies are appealing to the government for certainty, with the manufacturing sector, whose supply chains are most closely integrated to the EU shouting the loudest. Who knows where we go from here, but the UK may look vastly different politically at the end of it all.

PSD

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