Location is Key for Energy Generation and Reliable Grids

­Our existing electricity grid faces lots of challenges through the growth of renewables. Rather than having one or two major energy generation plants supplying the grid, it now has to take into account renewable generation from both domestic and commercial generators. However, that isn’t the only challenge that grids face - climate change and new weather patterns can also lead to disruptions and blackouts. To maintain a reliable grid now relies on regional climate forecasts and knowledge of local energy systems, including new renewable generation, storage, transmission lines, and demand forecasts. Those exacting demands mean that energy providers rarely take climate change into account when deciding where to situate new facilities.

MIT researchers have tried to solve this problem by creating a way to provide climate-informed energy siting choices, and also to demonstrate how that information can make energy systems more resilient. The research produced a framework, which is described in a paper published in ‘Nature Energy’. The framework combines fine-scale meteorology with detailed simulations of energy infrastructure.

To show its capabilities, the researchers applied the framework to decarbonized energy systems in New England and Texas, finding that energy systems designed for historic climate conditions could face up to a 500% increase in energy shortfalls by 2050. Taking climate change into account when designing the system, improved the resilience of both regions’ energy systems at no or very little additional costs.

Historically, researchers have mainly studied the impacts of climate change on individual technologies. Other studies looked at the impact of climate change on larger areas. More recently, region-specific studies have been done but typically relied on low-resolution, global climate models, which limits insights for regional system planning.

The researchers chose Texas and New England to demonstrate the framework, as they provide two different climate types and energy systems. Fine-scale meteorology models calculated the influence of climate change on weather-related energy failures. The researchers also investigated the impact of using climate change models to help site energy projects. They found that locations that are best suited to provide the renewable energy that the grid needs were very different in future climate conditions than in the past.

In New England, the researchers found that energy supply disruptions caused by climate-related weather changes necessitate investment in solar capacity and transmission lines close to energy demand centres, such as cities.

In Texas, energy disruption risks were driven by transmission constraints. The researchers found that climate-informed designs would prioritize adding wind farms in West Texas to better align with future demand patterns. The study assumes both regions will continue adding renewable capacity, providing the researchers with the conclusion that Texas could improve the resilience of its grid at near-zero additional cost.