By 2040, 80% of all Buses Will be Electric

Mass transit will ditch fossil fuels almost entirely over the next several decades – a study predicts that 80% of all buses will be electric by 2040.

As of 2016, gasoline represented 55% of U.S. transportation energy sources, with diesel at 21%, jet fuel at 12%, biofuels at 5%, natural gas at 4%, and “other” at 4%, which includes liquefied petroleum gas, lubricants, residual fuel oil, and electric.

So it’s a long way to 80%.

But fleet operators are scrambling to make the conversion, and their motivation is clear – according to the study by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), electric buses will have a lower total cost of ownership than conventional municipal buses by 2019.

Electric buses will benefit from the quirks of urban travel – while conventional petrol is terribly inefficient in stop-and-go traffic, EVs can recover energy through regenerative braking.   

“We now think EVs will be 55% of light-duty vehicle sales in 2040, rather than 54%, and represent 33% of the total car fleet worldwide,” said Colin McKerracher, lead analyst on advanced transportation for BNEF.

“But the big new feature of this forecast is electric buses … by 2040 we expect 80% of the global municipal bus fleet to be electric.”

History shows that lower gas prices reduce transit usage, but EVs represent significant cost savings, and with developers like Proterra hitting crazy milestones – 1,100 miles for an electric bus on a single charge – the conversion is going to happen.

Proterra is touting some huge lifetime maintenance and operational savings for its own electric buses – up to $237,000 and $459,000, respectively, compared to diesel-hybrid equivalents over 12 years.

And as the economics of EVs become more favorable, we should see a global explosion of electrified mass transit systems. As MSN points out, the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency has already committed to an all-electric bus fleet by 2035, with more cities to follow.

Read more about this here: https://about.bnef.com/blog/e-buses-surge-even-faster-evs-conventional-vehicles-fade/